Curated Market news from PesaPip Forex

• The US Dollar Index softens to 101.6 in Tuesday’s early European session, losing 0.19% on the day.
• The negative outlook of the index remains in play below the 100-day EMA.
• Crucial support level to watch is 100.00; the first upside barrier is seen at 103.35.

• EUR/USD may come under renewed pressure as the US Dollar remains supported by encouraging developments in US-China trade talks.
• The US and China have reached a preliminary agreement to significantly reduce tariffs, signaling a potential easing of trade tensions.
• The European Central Bank could prolong its monetary easing cycle in response to declining inflationary pressures.

• Silver price may aim for a retest of the six-week high of $33.69, last seen on April 24.
• The 14-day RSI has moved above the 50 level, indicating a strengthening bullish momentum.
• Initial support is seen at the nine-day EMA of $32.71, with further support at the 50-day EMA of $32.50.

• USD/CHF weakens as the US Dollar retreats, likely driven by a technical correction.
• US headline CPI is expected to recover to 0.3% MoM in April, from -0.1%.
• Easing trade tensions have dampened the demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc.

• GBP/USD gains traction to around 1.3195 in Tuesday’s early European session.
• Gradual and careful policy-easing approach by the BOE supports the GBP.
• The UK employment and US CPI inflation reports will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday.

• EUR/USD faces pressure near 1.0800 as investors are cautious ahead of the US PCE inflation data for February.
• The European Commission prepares for retaliatory measures against US President Trump’s auto tariffs.
• Inflation in Spain and France grew at a moderate pace in March.

• Gold price continues to attract safe-haven flows amid rising trade tensions.
• Fed rate cut bets keep the USD bulls on the defensive and also lend support.
• Traders now look to the US PCE Price Index for some meaningful impetus.

• The Dow Jones backslid another 100 points on Thursday.
• Equities are facing further downside as US tariffs weigh on car manufacturing.
• Financial agencies are stepping up their warnings of risks to the US economy.

• XAU/USD jumps over 1% as global tensions mount, stocks slide, and US Dollar weakens.
• Trump’s 25% auto tariffs spark trade war jitters, driving safe-haven demand for Gold to new all-time highs.
• Risk appetite crumbles as Wall Street dips and DXY reverses.
• Traders await US Core PCE inflation amid firm jobs data and 64.5 bps of Fed cuts priced for 2025.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney cautioned markets that the Canadian government is both ready and willing to start retaliatory trade actions against US President Donald Trump.

• USD/JPY jumps to near 151.00 as the Japanese Yen declines significantly.
• The US Dollar slumps after US President Trump announces 25% auto tariffs.
• Fed policymakers support keeping interest rates at their current levels until they get clarity over Trump’s policies.

• Markets are digesting surprise auto tariffs from US President Donald Trump. 
• Traders and the Fed mull over the impact of additional tariffs being issued by Trump’s administration. 
• The US Dollar Index retraces earlier gains and turns flat on Thursday. 

The Dollar Index (DXY) has found some support under 104.00 helped by a little more stability in US asset markets, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

• Gold price struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s move higher amid mixed fundamental cues.
• Persistent US recession fears and Fed rate cut bets weigh on the USD, backing the XAU/USD pair. 
• A positive risk tone caps the precious metal as traders keenly await the US PCE data on Friday.

• EUR/USD holds positive ground around 1.0780 in Wednesday’s Asian session, adding 0.13% on the day.
• The US CB’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to a four-year low in March. 
• ECB’s Villeroy said there is still room to cut the interest rates further. 

• USD/JPY slumps below 150.00 amid sheer strength in the Japanese Yen on bloating BoJ hawkish bets.
• Investors expect US President Trump’s tariff agenda to be less disruptive.
• The US Dollar falls after failing to hold Monday’s gains that were driven by upbeat flash S&P Global Services PMI data for March.

• Gold holds ground above $3,000 on Monday after a recent decline from all-time highs. 
• US President Trump to impose more tariffs on cars and against countries buying Venezuelan Oil. 
• Gold is still supported in the $3,000 region, though pressure is building for more downside. 

• Markets mull US Vice President JD Vance’s recent comments about Europe in a leaked Signal chat.
• US President Trump launches “secondary tariffs”.  
• The US Dollar Index fails to break 104.50 after a brief test. 

• EUR/USD finds support below 1.0800 as the US Dollar struggles to extend upside despite easing fears of impending tariffs by the US on April 2.
• Preliminary US S&P Global Services PMI gained significantly in March.
• The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again in April.

USD slightly down. Strong US PMI data boosted USD yesterday, alleviating growth worries (Scotiabank).

Eurozone PMI edged up to 50.4 in March, indicating continued growth. Q1 was boosted by German manufacturing optimism, but PMI missed expectations (ABN AMRO).

After outperforming its rivals for three consecutive days, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand at the beginning of the week. Later in the day, S&P Global will publish preliminary Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US. 

• Gold dips to ~$3,025 amid Ukraine peace hopes.
• Fed rate outlook may limit losses.

• EUR/USD rises before PMI data.
• USD weakens on trade worries.
• Euro boosted by easing tariff concerns.

• EUR/USD hovered around 1.0820 after the European session, down for the third day.
• Despite a 1% weekly drop, 100/200-day SMA crossover may offer support.
• RSI and MACD signal bearish momentum.

• The US Dollar Index rises for the third session in a row.
• Geopolitical risks keep the Greenback in demand.
• Fed reiterates commitment to 2025 rate cuts, US yields slip but the Dollar still gains.

• AUD/USD remains under some selling pressure on Friday amid a modest USD strength.
• Thursday’s disappointing jobs data undermines the Aussie and contributes to the slide.
• The optimism over China’s stimulus and hopes for a US-China trade deal to limit losses.

Oil prices rallied yesterday with ICE Brent settling more than 1.7% higher on the day at US$72/bbl, the highest close this month. And this strength has continued in early morning trading in Asia, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stuck to a strictly neutral tone in her EU Parliament speech yesterday, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

USD surged Thursday, outperforming peers. Dollar Index continues upward trend and is positive weekly. With no data Friday, focus shifts to Fed speakers and Trump.

• GBP/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Friday amid mixed fundamental cues.
• A modest USD uptick caps the upside, though the divergent Fed-BoE outlook lends support.
• Spot prices, meanwhile, remain on track to register modest gains for the third straight week. 

• EUR/USD sheds 0.2% to fall back below the 1.0900 handle on Thursday.
• Market sentiment remains subdued overall as investors recover from Powell glut.
• Fiber markets have snapped a recent win streak as the Euro falls back for a second day.

GBP/USD topped 1.300 on USD weakness, per ING's Pesole.

GBP likely to rise unevenly between 1.2955-1.3030. Further gains expected longer-term, but slow momentum suggests 1.3050 may take time (UOB Group).

USD faces bearish pressure pre-FOMC. Recession fears persist despite Treasury efforts; indicators favor exiting US assets. BofA survey reveals record shift to European equities, ending US exceptionalism (69%). Global growth pessimism is a lone USD positive (ING).

EUR/USD may range 1.0905-1.0970. UOB sees bullish continuation above 1.0950.

German Bundestag approved debt brake change, likely to pass Bundesrat. Euro already reflects fiscal reform success; optimism may peak, per ING's Pesole.